The Future of Strategic Planning in Uncertain Times

July 2025

Strategic planning in uncertain times requires a fundamental shift from traditional forecasting to adaptive, scenario-based approaches. Swiss organizations must embrace new methodologies to thrive amid volatility.

The Limitations of Traditional Planning

Forecasting Challenges

• Increased market volatility and unpredictability
• Accelerating pace of technological disruption
• Geopolitical uncertainties affecting global markets
• Changing customer behaviors and expectations

Shifting Paradigms

• From single-point forecasts to multiple scenarios
• From rigid plans to adaptive frameworks
• From annual cycles to continuous planning
• From siloed to integrated strategic thinking

Scenario Planning Methodologies

Developing Robust Scenarios

• Identify critical uncertainties and driving forces
• Create plausible alternative futures
• Test strategic options across scenarios
• Develop early warning indicators

Strategic Implications

• Build flexibility into resource allocation
• Develop contingency plans for key scenarios
• Create option value through strategic positioning
• Maintain strategic reserves for unexpected events

Adaptive Strategic Frameworks

Real Options Approach

• Treat strategic initiatives as portfolios of options
• Stage investments to create future flexibility
• Establish clear decision triggers and milestones
• Balance commitment with adaptability

Agile Strategic Planning

• Implement shorter planning horizons
• Create cross-functional strategy teams
• Establish rapid feedback and learning loops
• Develop minimum viable strategies with iteration

Strategic Risk Management

Emerging Risk Identification

• Implement horizon scanning and weak signal detection
• Develop risk sensing capabilities and networks
• Create diverse perspectives in risk assessment
• Integrate external expertise and viewpoints

Resilience Building

• Stress test strategic plans against extreme scenarios
• Diversify strategic options and capabilities
• Build redundancy in critical resources and systems
• Develop organizational adaptability and learning

Strategic Decision-Making

Decision Frameworks

• Implement robust decision processes under uncertainty
• Distinguish between irreversible and reversible decisions
• Apply appropriate decision tools for different contexts
• Balance analytical and intuitive decision approaches

Governance and Oversight

• Create dynamic strategic review mechanisms
• Establish clear decision rights and accountability
• Develop strategic risk appetite frameworks
• Enable rapid strategic pivots when needed

Ready to transform your strategic planning? Contact us for expert guidance on building resilient strategies for uncertain times.